The 1-1 draw against Italy had hardly any effect on Spain’s chances of reaching the quarterfinals. But the drop from 99.7% to 98.8% means that Germany with 99.3% is the top-ranked team now.
Italy surpassed the 80% mark with that slightly unexpected one point from the match against Spain, while Croatia’s odds did not see any change at all. Their 3-1 victory against Ireland was mostly in line with the expectations.
The already marginal chances of Ireland dropped to 0.1% after losing against Croatia with giants Spain and Italy waiting in the next matches.
Group D sees France with the best chances of surviving the group stage but today’s opponents England following closely after. Irrelevant of this game’s result are both considered strong enough in comparison to the other group members.
Sweden’s 30% chance of making it to the next round could materialize with a victory against Ukraine and would increase if the first match does not end in a draw.