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Yesterday’s matches
Greece and Czech Republic qualified for the quarter-finals from group A. Both teams had less-than-50% probabilities in the simulations at the beginning of the tournament and managed to kick out the favoured teams from Russia and Poland.
Today’s matches 
Portugal: 13% | Draw: 25% | Netherlands: 62%1-2 is the most frequent result in the simulations
Denmark: 1% | Draw: 7% | Germany: 92%0-2 is the most frequent result in the simulations 
Probability ranking
Germany 99.9%
Portugal 48.9%  
Netherlands 36.3%
Denmark 14.8%  

Yesterday’s matches

Greece and Czech Republic qualified for the quarter-finals from group A. Both teams had less-than-50% probabilities in the simulations at the beginning of the tournament and managed to kick out the favoured teams from Russia and Poland.

Today’s matches 

Portugal: 13% | Draw: 25% | Netherlands: 62%
1-2 is the most frequent result in the simulations

Denmark: 1% | Draw: 7% | Germany: 92%
0-2 is the most frequent result in the simulations 

Probability ranking

  1. Germany 99.9%
  2. Portugal 48.9%  
  3. Netherlands 36.3%
  4. Denmark 14.8%  
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Yesterday’s matches
England’s and France’s chances to advance to the quarter-finals were both rising to a probability of close to 100% after their victorys. While it is already sure that the Swedish team has to travel home after the group stage, Ukraine maintains a minimal chance to keep themselves in the tournament.
Today’s matches
Czech Republic: 28% | Draw: 36% | Poland: 36%1-1 is the most frequent result in the simulations
Greece: 8% | Draw: 16% | Russia: 76%0-1 is the most frequent result in the simulations

Yesterday’s matches

England’s and France’s chances to advance to the quarter-finals were both rising to a probability of close to 100% after their victorys. While it is already sure that the Swedish team has to travel home after the group stage, Ukraine maintains a minimal chance to keep themselves in the tournament.

Today’s matches

Czech Republic: 28% | Draw: 36% | Poland: 36%
1-1 is the most frequent result in the simulations

Greece: 8% | Draw: 16% | Russia: 76%
0-1 is the most frequent result in the simulations

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Yesterday’s matches
The Spanish victory against Ireland has been as likely as no other match outcome of this EURO before, so it did not have any effect on the likelihoods of advancing to the knock-out rounds for these two teams. Spain stays at almost 100% and Ireland is now officially the first team whose tournament will be over after the group stage.
Italy’s chances slightly decreased after a win against Croatia has been widely anticipated. They are still clearly ahead of Croatia as a victory against Ireland and Spain winning against Croatia is seen as the most likely situation.
Today’s matches
Anything but a French victory against Ukraine would be a surprise. The chances for this match distribute 3% to 17% to 80% (UKR/draw/FRA). The most likely single result is a 2-0 victory for France.
England’s probability of winning against Sweden are at 53%, followed by a 31% likelihood of a draw and a 16% chance of Sweden winning this match. 1-0 and 2-1 victories for England are considered equally probable as the most likely outcome of that match.

Yesterday’s matches

The Spanish victory against Ireland has been as likely as no other match outcome of this EURO before, so it did not have any effect on the likelihoods of advancing to the knock-out rounds for these two teams. Spain stays at almost 100% and Ireland is now officially the first team whose tournament will be over after the group stage.

Italy’s chances slightly decreased after a win against Croatia has been widely anticipated. They are still clearly ahead of Croatia as a victory against Ireland and Spain winning against Croatia is seen as the most likely situation.

Today’s matches

Anything but a French victory against Ukraine would be a surprise. The chances for this match distribute 3% to 17% to 80% (UKR/draw/FRA). The most likely single result is a 2-0 victory for France.

England’s probability of winning against Sweden are at 53%, followed by a 31% likelihood of a draw and a 16% chance of Sweden winning this match. 1-0 and 2-1 victories for England are considered equally probable as the most likely outcome of that match.

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Yesterday’s matches
The 2-1 victory against the Netherlands has manifested Germany’s close to 100% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, even if there are still theoretical chances to let Portugal and Denmark surpass.
Interestingly the Netherlands are still considered to have the best chances to reach the play-off round. With 57.5% they are clearly ahead of Portugal (38%) and Denmark who dropped back to 4.5% after their 2-3 loss. In order for the Netherlands to stay in the tournament, they would need to win against Portugal and hope on a German victory against Denmark.
Today’s matches
Italy is the clear favourite in the match against Croatia with chances being distributed 64% (Italian victory) to 24% (draw) to 12% (Croatian victory). The most frequent result in the simulations is a 1-0 victory for Italy.
In the second match today, everything else than a Spanish victory against Ireland would be a giant surprise. The probability distribution is 97% (Spain) to 2% (draw) to 1% (Ireland). A 2-0 is considered the most likely outcome.

Yesterday’s matches

The 2-1 victory against the Netherlands has manifested Germany’s close to 100% chance of reaching the quarter-finals, even if there are still theoretical chances to let Portugal and Denmark surpass.

Interestingly the Netherlands are still considered to have the best chances to reach the play-off round. With 57.5% they are clearly ahead of Portugal (38%) and Denmark who dropped back to 4.5% after their 2-3 loss. In order for the Netherlands to stay in the tournament, they would need to win against Portugal and hope on a German victory against Denmark.

Today’s matches

Italy is the clear favourite in the match against Croatia with chances being distributed 64% (Italian victory) to 24% (draw) to 12% (Croatian victory). The most frequent result in the simulations is a 1-0 victory for Italy.

In the second match today, everything else than a Spanish victory against Ireland would be a giant surprise. The probability distribution is 97% (Spain) to 2% (draw) to 1% (Ireland). A 2-0 is considered the most likely outcome.

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Yesterday’s matches
After winning 2-1 against Greece the Czech Republic surpassed Poland in its probability of reaching the quarter-finals as a draw in the direct duel on the last match day would be enough. However the chances are distributed 60% to 40% in favour of the Czech, which is still a quite close call.
Russia’s 1-1 draw against Poland helped them to a close to 100% probability of making it to the next round, whereas Greece dropped to 3%.
Today’s matches
Despite Denmark’s surprising victory against the Netherlands which lifted them to a 20% probability of reaching the quarter-finals, the chances for the match against Portugal are distributed 7%/26%/67% (Denmark/draw/Portugal). In terms of individual results a 2-1 victory for Portugal is considered most likely.
For the old rivalry between Netherlands and Germany the simulations see a 21%/38%/41% (Netherlands/draw/Germany) distribution with a 1-1 and a 2-2 draw being equally likely as a single result.

Yesterday’s matches

After winning 2-1 against Greece the Czech Republic surpassed Poland in its probability of reaching the quarter-finals as a draw in the direct duel on the last match day would be enough. However the chances are distributed 60% to 40% in favour of the Czech, which is still a quite close call.

Russia’s 1-1 draw against Poland helped them to a close to 100% probability of making it to the next round, whereas Greece dropped to 3%.

Today’s matches

Despite Denmark’s surprising victory against the Netherlands which lifted them to a 20% probability of reaching the quarter-finals, the chances for the match against Portugal are distributed 7%/26%/67% (Denmark/draw/Portugal). In terms of individual results a 2-1 victory for Portugal is considered most likely.

For the old rivalry between Netherlands and Germany the simulations see a 21%/38%/41% (Netherlands/draw/Germany) distribution with a 1-1 and a 2-2 draw being equally likely as a single result.

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Yesterday’s matches
In our simulations England’s chances of getting into the quarter-finals raised by 8.3% after incorporating their 1-1 draw against France, while the French probability did not see any significant change. A draw between these two teams was mostly anticipated but Sweden’s defeat increased the chances of both England and Ukraine. The co-hosts have surpassed Sweden but they are still unlikely to proceed to the next round.
Today’s matches
In today’s match between Greece and Czech Republic the two lower ranked teams from group A play for retaining a last chance to advance to the quarter-finals. The probabilities for the different outcomes are distributed 53% (Czech Republic), 32% (draw) 15% (Greece). A 1-0 victory of Czech Republic is considered the most likely single result.
The battle for place #1 in group A sees Russia in the better position with 40% chance of winning against Poland. With 36% likelihood there will be a draw and a victory of the co-hosts Poland accounts to 24%. The odds are quite close, hence it is not surprising that the simulations see a 1-1 draw as the most likely single result.

Yesterday’s matches

In our simulations England’s chances of getting into the quarter-finals raised by 8.3% after incorporating their 1-1 draw against France, while the French probability did not see any significant change. A draw between these two teams was mostly anticipated but Sweden’s defeat increased the chances of both England and Ukraine. The co-hosts have surpassed Sweden but they are still unlikely to proceed to the next round.

Today’s matches

In today’s match between Greece and Czech Republic the two lower ranked teams from group A play for retaining a last chance to advance to the quarter-finals. The probabilities for the different outcomes are distributed 53% (Czech Republic), 32% (draw) 15% (Greece). A 1-0 victory of Czech Republic is considered the most likely single result.

The battle for place #1 in group A sees Russia in the better position with 40% chance of winning against Poland. With 36% likelihood there will be a draw and a victory of the co-hosts Poland accounts to 24%. The odds are quite close, hence it is not surprising that the simulations see a 1-1 draw as the most likely single result.

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Yesterday’s matches
The 1-1 draw against Italy had hardly any effect on Spain’s chances of reaching the quarterfinals. But the drop from 99.7% to 98.8% means that Germany with 99.3% is the top-ranked team now.
Italy surpassed the 80% mark with that slightly unexpected one point from the match against Spain, while Croatia’s odds did not see any change at all. Their 3-1 victory against Ireland was mostly in line with the expectations.
The already marginal chances of Ireland dropped to 0.1% after losing against Croatia with giants Spain and Italy waiting in the next matches.
Today’s matches
Group D sees France with the best chances of surviving the group stage but today’s opponents England following closely after. Irrelevant of this game’s result are both considered strong enough in comparison to the other group members.
Sweden’s 30% chance of making it to the next round could materialize with a victory against Ukraine and would increase if the first match does not end in a draw.

Yesterday’s matches

The 1-1 draw against Italy had hardly any effect on Spain’s chances of reaching the quarterfinals. But the drop from 99.7% to 98.8% means that Germany with 99.3% is the top-ranked team now.

Italy surpassed the 80% mark with that slightly unexpected one point from the match against Spain, while Croatia’s odds did not see any change at all. Their 3-1 victory against Ireland was mostly in line with the expectations.

The already marginal chances of Ireland dropped to 0.1% after losing against Croatia with giants Spain and Italy waiting in the next matches.

Today’s matches

Group D sees France with the best chances of surviving the group stage but today’s opponents England following closely after. Irrelevant of this game’s result are both considered strong enough in comparison to the other group members.

Sweden’s 30% chance of making it to the next round could materialize with a victory against Ukraine and would increase if the first match does not end in a draw.

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Yesterday’s matches
Netherland’s surprising 0-1 defeat against Denmark had quite a big impact on the probabilities in group B, though it did not change the ranking of the four teams.
The Dutch team dropped below the 50% mark while the odds of all other teams improved. Germany climbed from 95.5% to 99.5% after winning against Portugal but also the Portuguese team gained 14.4% and now has a chance of 1 in 3 to make it to the next round. Denmark still ranks fourth with 20.1%.
Today’s matches
Spain’s chances of reaching the quarter-finals are 99.7%, the best of all participating teams. Italy ranks second in group C with a 1 in 5 chance that Croatia would take their place. Ireland is the underdog with only 2.8%. Even if they won against Croatia, it would be very unlikely to see them in the play-off rounds.

Yesterday’s matches

Netherland’s surprising 0-1 defeat against Denmark had quite a big impact on the probabilities in group B, though it did not change the ranking of the four teams.

The Dutch team dropped below the 50% mark while the odds of all other teams improved. Germany climbed from 95.5% to 99.5% after winning against Portugal but also the Portuguese team gained 14.4% and now has a chance of 1 in 3 to make it to the next round. Denmark still ranks fourth with 20.1%.

Today’s matches

Spain’s chances of reaching the quarter-finals are 99.7%, the best of all participating teams. Italy ranks second in group C with a 1 in 5 chance that Croatia would take their place. Ireland is the underdog with only 2.8%. Even if they won against Croatia, it would be very unlikely to see them in the play-off rounds.